Shiller CAPE · Oct 11, 2026
41.2
Scaled from Oct 1, 2026 by the price at 02:01 ET
Tax-adjusted · Oct 11, 2026
40.4
Restated trailing earnings
K-factor
0.982
Adjusted ÷ CPI CAPE · Oct 1, 2026
S&P 500
7812
As of 11 Oct 2026 02:01 ET
Annual rows are December; the newest month of each series and today's price-scaled point are kept on top, so the latest reading is never hidden by that truncation. Earnings are reported through Jun 1, 2026; later months hold them flat and move on price and the deflator alone, so they are drawn dashed. Computed monthly on a 120-month window, which is Shiller's own method: the replicated CPI CAPE lands within 0.05 of his published figure. The adjusted line starts Dec 1, 1918, ten full years after its deflator does. K is that line divided by the replicated CPI CAPE, so below 1.0 the adjustment makes the market look cheaper than the headline number does. FRED's M2SL begins in 1959. The tax adjustment restates each past year's earnings at today's statutory rate, so a cut revises the trailing window upward and brings CAPE down. Rates are top federal statutory, stated through 2026 and held flat after that. The two stack by multiplying their deflators, not their K-factors - a mean of ratios does not factor, and composing the K's instead would be out by up to 1.2%.
View as a table
| Period | Shiller CAPE | Tax-adjusted | K |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 scaled by price | 41.18 | 40.44 | 0.982 |
| Oct 1, 2026 earnings held | 40.71 | 39.14 | 0.982 |
| Aug 1, 2026 earnings held | 40.99 | 39.66 | 0.980 |
| 2025 | 39.58 | 38.14 | 0.969 |
| 2024 | 37.71 | 35.76 | 0.952 |
| 2023 | 31.45 | 29.24 | 0.933 |
| 2022 | 28.32 | 25.81 | 0.915 |
| 2021 | 38.30 | 34.07 | 0.895 |
| 2020 | 33.77 | 29.56 | 0.875 |
| 2019 | 30.33 | 25.94 | 0.861 |
| 2018 | 28.29 | 23.60 | 0.843 |
| 2017 | 32.09 | 31.98 | 1.000 |
| 2016 | 27.87 | 27.87 | 1.000 |
| 2015 | 25.97 | 25.96 | 1.000 |
| 2014 | 26.79 | 26.71 | 1.000 |
| 2013 | 24.86 | 24.75 | 1.000 |
| 2012 | 21.24 | 21.10 | 1.000 |
| 2011 | 20.52 | 20.37 | 1.000 |
| 2010 | 22.40 | 22.35 | 1.000 |
| 2009 | 20.32 | 20.36 | 1.000 |
| 2008 | 15.38 | 15.45 | 1.000 |
| 2007 | 25.96 | 25.90 | 1.000 |
| 2006 | 27.28 | 27.14 | 1.000 |
| 2005 | 26.44 | 26.32 | 1.000 |
| 2004 | 27.14 | 27.04 | 1.000 |
| 2003 | 26.64 | 26.52 | 1.000 |
| 2002 | 23.10 | 23.09 | 1.000 |
| 2001 | 30.50 | 30.50 | 1.001 |
| 2000 | 37.27 | 37.15 | 1.002 |
| 1999 | 44.20 | 44.15 | 1.003 |
| 1998 | 38.82 | 38.96 | 1.005 |
| 1997 | 33.03 | 33.11 | 1.007 |
| 1996 | 27.72 | 27.58 | 1.000 |
| 1995 | 25.03 | 24.51 | 0.984 |
| 1994 | 19.91 | 19.16 | 0.965 |
| 1993 | 21.16 | 20.00 | 0.945 |
| 1992 | 20.45 | 18.72 | 0.915 |
| 1991 | 18.44 | 16.62 | 0.899 |
| 1990 | 15.85 | 13.98 | 0.882 |
| 1989 | 17.65 | 15.25 | 0.863 |
| 1988 | 14.70 | 12.38 | 0.843 |
| 1987 | 13.39 | 12.12 | 0.904 |
| 1986 | 14.09 | 14.00 | 0.992 |
| 1985 | 11.69 | 11.56 | 0.988 |
| 1984 | 9.60 | 9.45 | 0.985 |
| 1983 | 9.82 | 9.65 | 0.981 |
| 1982 | 8.47 | 8.29 | 0.978 |
| 1981 | 7.83 | 7.62 | 0.975 |
| 1980 | 9.39 | 9.10 | 0.971 |
| 1979 | 8.75 | 8.42 | 0.965 |
| 1978 | 9.01 | 8.89 | 0.988 |
| 1977 | 9.68 | 9.45 | 0.978 |
| 1976 | 11.60 | 11.34 | 0.977 |
| 1975 | 10.25 | 10.03 | 0.978 |
| 1974 | 8.29 | 8.09 | 0.978 |
| 1973 | 13.49 | 13.10 | 0.974 |
| 1972 | 18.65 | 17.99 | 0.966 |
| 1971 | 16.60 | 15.90 | 0.960 |
| 1970 | 15.87 | 15.47 | 0.976 |
| 1969 | 17.33 | 18.06 | 1.045 |
| 1968 | 22.28 | 23.26 | 1.048 |
| 1967 | 21.75 | 20.71 | 0.955 |
| 1966 | 19.74 | 18.61 | 0.946 |
| 1965 | 23.69 | 22.15 | 0.936 |
| 1964 | 22.75 | 21.88 | 0.965 |
| 1963 | 21.04 | 20.98 | 1.000 |
| 1962 | 18.59 | 18.54 | 1.000 |
| 1961 | 22.04 | 22.02 | 1.000 |
| 1960 | 17.56 | 17.61 | 1.002 |
| 1959 | 18.62 | 18.97 | 1.020 |
| 1958 | 17.36 | 18.09 | 1.043 |
| 1957 | 13.67 | 14.47 | 1.063 |
| 1956 | 17.20 | 18.52 | 1.084 |
| 1955 | 18.94 | 20.80 | 1.106 |
| 1954 | 15.79 | 17.78 | 1.132 |
| 1953 | 11.75 | 13.56 | 1.158 |
| 1952 | 12.93 | 15.32 | 1.189 |
| 1951 | 12.15 | 14.44 | 1.191 |
| 1950 | 11.31 | 11.91 | 1.058 |
| 1949 | 10.53 | 10.70 | 1.021 |
| 1948 | 10.16 | 10.54 | 1.044 |
| 1947 | 10.68 | 11.45 | 1.071 |
| 1946 | 11.37 | 12.67 | 1.110 |
| 1945 | 15.02 | 17.72 | 1.180 |
| 1944 | 11.64 | 14.14 | 1.217 |
| 1943 | 10.74 | 13.39 | 1.251 |
| 1942 | 9.62 | 12.39 | 1.294 |
| 1941 | 10.09 | 11.75 | 1.171 |
| 1940 | 13.91 | 15.23 | 1.098 |
| 1939 | 16.28 | 17.20 | 1.052 |
| 1938 | 15.76 | 16.85 | 1.064 |
| 1937 | 13.01 | 13.28 | 1.023 |
| 1936 | 21.13 | 21.65 | 1.025 |
| 1935 | 16.16 | 16.39 | 1.012 |
| 1934 | 11.64 | 11.82 | 1.013 |
| 1933 | 12.28 | 12.49 | 1.014 |
| 1932 | 8.26 | 8.39 | 1.015 |
| 1931 | 9.31 | 9.23 | 0.995 |
| 1930 | 16.06 | 15.95 | 0.996 |
| 1929 | 22.01 | 21.57 | 0.987 |
| 1928 | 25.30 | 25.17 | 0.998 |
| 1927 | 18.65 | 19.02 | 1.015 |
| 1926 | 13.01 | 13.52 | 1.030 |
| 1925 | 11.15 | 11.67 | 1.045 |
| 1924 | 9.31 | 9.80 | 1.053 |
| 1923 | 7.81 | 8.32 | 1.065 |
| 1922 | 7.96 | 8.61 | 1.077 |
| 1921 | 6.11 | 6.49 | 1.055 |
| 1920 | 4.78 | 5.10 | 1.062 |
| 1919 | 6.16 | 6.61 | 1.069 |
| 1918 | 6.13 | 6.76 | 1.102 |
| 1917 | 6.41 | — | — |
| 1916 | 11.41 | — | — |
| 1915 | 12.88 | — | — |
| 1914 | 10.17 | — | — |
| 1913 | 11.17 | — | — |
| 1912 | 13.39 | — | — |
| 1911 | 13.93 | — | — |
| 1910 | 13.74 | — | — |
| 1909 | 14.75 | — | — |
| 1908 | 14.58 | — | — |
| 1907 | 11.33 | — | — |
| 1906 | 17.66 | — | — |
| 1905 | 19.58 | — | — |
| 1904 | 18.16 | — | — |
| 1903 | 16.04 | — | — |
| 1902 | 19.63 | — | — |
| 1901 | 21.68 | — | — |
| 1900 | 20.74 | — | — |
| 1899 | 18.51 | — | — |
| 1898 | 21.40 | — | — |
| 1897 | 18.75 | — | — |
| 1896 | 16.50 | — | — |
| 1895 | 16.55 | — | — |
| 1894 | 16.67 | — | — |
| 1893 | 15.61 | — | — |
| 1892 | 18.01 | — | — |
| 1891 | 18.21 | — | — |
| 1890 | 14.44 | — | — |
| 1889 | 16.61 | — | — |
| 1888 | 14.95 | — | — |
| 1887 | 15.46 | — | — |
| 1886 | 18.19 | — | — |
| 1885 | 16.30 | — | — |
| 1884 | 13.43 | — | — |
| 1883 | 14.90 | — | — |
| 1882 | 15.38 | — | — |
| 1881 | 15.96 | — | — |
Data freshness
| Source | Last pulled | Status | Detail |
|---|---|---|---|
| fred_m2sl | 2026-10-08 23:44 ET | ok | 812 months, 1959-01-2026-08 |
| shiller | 2026-10-08 23:44 ET | ok | {'price': 1870, 'earnings': 1866, 'cpi': 1870, 'shiller_cape': 1750, … |
| sp500_spot | 2026-10-11 02:01 ET | ok | ^GSPC = 7811.54, ^TNX = 5.244 |